According to BNP Paribas Bank experts, after unfreezing, electricity prices may increase from PLN 412 to PLN 520 per 1 MWh, with the intervention of the President of the Energy Regulatory Office. If the Energy Regulatory Office releases energy prices, increases of up to PLN 739 per 1 MWh are expected after June 30 this year, i.e. after the government unfreezes energy prices. The Ministry of Environmental Protection predicts lower increases in electricity prices.
- As we remember, the new government quickly adopted, or rather amended, the previous Act on the protection of consumers against rising prices of energy, gas and heat of 2023. The amended act maintained the existing rules for protecting specific consumers of electricity, gas and heat until the first half of 2024.
- The Minister of Climate and Environment, Paulina Hennig-Kloska, wants to regulate electricity bills so that energy prices for farms do not increase by more than PLN 30 per month after June 30 this year.
- The Ministry of Climate also announced the introduction of the so-called an energy voucher, which is intended to alleviate the impact of increases on the less well-off (approximately 4 million households). Who will the energy voucher be for?
Assessing the market situation, we believe that the new electricity sales rate (it should be taken into account that electricity sellers bought energy in advance, when market prices were significantly higher) can be set at PLN 470-520/MWh.
As we remember, the new government quickly adopted, or rather amended, the previous Act on the protection of consumers against rising prices of energy, gas and heat of 2023. The amended act maintained the existing rules for protecting specific consumers of electricity, gas and heat until the first half of 2024.
The amended regulations provide for, among others: maximum electricity prices for households, farmers and small and medium-sized companies, but only until June 30 this year.
The maximum electricity price was maintained at PLN 412 per MWh net up to a specified consumption limit.
In turn, the limit levels are 1.5 MWh for all households, 1.8 MWh for households with people with disabilities, 2 MWh for families with the Large Family Card and for farmers. The limits are only half lower than those adopted by the Sejm in the entire year 2023, due to the fact that the amended act is to be in force only for half a year, i.e. until the end of June this year. Of course, everyone is wondering how electricity prices will change after the expiry of the act freezing energy prices until mid-2024. BNP Paribas Bank experts have already offered their analyzes and forecasts.
How much will electricity prices increase after June 30, 2024 for households?
As experts from this BNP Paribas Bank checked, the complete unfreezing of energy prices from July this year. to the level consistent with the tariff approved by the Energy Regulatory Office in December last year (PLN 739/MWh) would mean an increase in electricity bills by up to approximately 65%. In this increase, the bank’s experts also took into account the costs of energy distribution, capacity fees and taxes.
However, information appearing in the public space suggests that the final increase will be significantly smaller. From the statement of Ministry of Climate Paulina Henning-Kloska, we conclude that it may amount to approximately 15-25%. – BNP Paribas experts forecast.
As calculated by the bank’s experts, the frozen main component of the electricity bill is PLN 412 per 1 MWh. After June 30 this year will increase to a maximum of approximately PLN 739 per MWh.
If a household maintains annual consumption between 2 and 2.5 MWh/year, bills (from June 30 to December 31 this year) will increase from PLN 327/6 months to over PLN 490/6 months. At least according to URE’s calculations. The average household typically uses 2 MWh per year.
The Ministry of Environmental Protection only wants to slow down the wave of electricity price increases after June 30 this year.
The Minister of Climate and Environment, Paulina Hennig-Kloska, wants to regulate electricity bills so that energy prices for farms do not increase by more than PLN 30 per month after June 30 this year.
From the statement of the Minister of Climate, Paulina Henning-Kloska, we conclude that it may amount to about 15-25 percent, which, taking into account about 4 percent. share of electricity in the CPI basket would increase inflation by 0.6-1 percentage point. in the second half of this year – noted BNP Paribas analysts.
The Ministry of Environmental Protection wants households to pay about PLN 180 more for electricity bills from June 30 this year. until December 31 this year. than we paid for the first half of 2024. However, many will pay for these bills to be higher.
This means that we have to add over PLN 30 more per month to the electricity bills we currently pay (which gives a total of 6xPLN 30 = PLN 180) from June 30 to December 31 this year. And this is the minimum amount, because the more electricity we use, the higher the bills we will pay.
Assessing the market situation, we believe that the new electricity sales rate (it should be taken into account that electricity sellers bought energy in advance, when market prices were significantly higher) can be set at PLN 470-520/MWh. The Ministry of Climate also announced the introduction of the so-called energy voucher, which is intended to alleviate the impact of increases on people in worse situations (approximately 4 million households) – summarized BNP Paribas experts.
The Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment wants to introduce energy vouchers for those earning the least money
Energy vouchers will therefore depend on our average income. When the level of our electricity expenses significantly exceeds our average earnings, then the government will most likely grant us an energy voucher.
Energy vouchers are therefore intended to support energy-poor people who do not have the opportunity to improve the energy efficiency of their houses and apartments.
Approximately three million households will be covered by support for energy bills, said Deputy Minister of Climate and Environment Miłosz Motyka. -We are talking about a situation in which energy bills often amount to 30, 40 (percent), even half of all expenses. We are also talking about large families, where consumption is very high. We are generally talking about households in which the level of electricity expenditure is significantly higher than the average – he added.
The deputy minister was asked whether the qualification for obtaining support in the form of an energy voucher would be the income threshold. stated that this is one of the solutions that could work, but these details will be known when a specific project is presented. We have to wait for the details.
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