Warm February is not an ordinary anomaly, but fits into the picture of global warming. And this signal must be taken seriously – tells PAP prof. Bogdan Chojnicki from the University of Life Sciences in Poznań. In his opinion, this is a picture of systemic climate change.
The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management announced on Monday that, according to the analysis of measurements from synoptic stations in Poland, this year’s February can be considered a “thermally extremely warm” month, with an average area anomaly compared to the long-term conditions in 1991-2020 of plus 5.9 degrees Celsius (as of February 25, 2024). Referring to data collected as part of the Climate Change Service, the Institute previously reported that last January was the warmest January in history and the 8th in a row with record values. Average global temperature from February 2023 to January this year. was the highest in history and was 0.64 degrees C above the average from 1991-2020 and 1.52 degrees C above the average from 1850-1900.
The situation is serious
In an interview with PAP, prof. Chojnicki from the Bioclimatology Laboratory of the Department of Ecology and Environmental Protection of the University of Life Sciences in Poznań noted that “we should not be afraid, because fear is not a good guide to solutions, but the situation is very serious.”
“Of course, it can be said that a record-breaking warm February can always happen, but now the situation is different. January was a record-breaking warm on our planet, in other words, a warm February is not a mere anomaly, but fits into the picture of global warming. And this must be taken seriously ” – he said. In his opinion, “this is no longer an anomaly, but a picture of systemic climate change.”
The scientist pointed to high ocean temperatures. According to data published, among others, by IMWM, the average global ocean temperature in January in the area above 60 degrees S – 60 degrees N reached 20.97 degrees Celsius. “The oceans have never been so warm, at least since 1982, when we have been observing them systematically. We had a record-breaking December 2023, and January and February 2024 turned out to be even warmer” – emphasized Prof. Chojnicki. He emphasized that this is a serious change.
“I see that scientists don’t really know how to explain this situation in the Atlantic. If we look at the history of discussions about climate change, many people from scientific circles have mentioned that the Earth, which is 2/3 covered with water, has a natural +cooler” in form of oceans. The oceans have a huge heat capacity and could simply mitigate these changes. But if the cooler we are talking about is starting to get warmer, it means that predictions about the compensating role of the oceans unfortunately give less and less hope for a natural slowdown in global warming,” he said. .
The average temperature value is rising
The scientist pointed out that the average resident of Poland, who perceives climate change only from the national perspective of a warm, short and snowless winter, must remember that this is the coldest period of the entire year.
“And now there will be hot periods. This is a signal that the entire average temperature value is clearly shifting, not as an anomaly, but as a systemic change. We have to take into account really high temperatures in the summer. Secondly, if there is a lack of precipitation, then the chances of drought occurring will be much greater,” he said.
Agricultural losses
Prof. Chojnicki also noted that the warm Atlantic Ocean may result in the appearance of a large mass of water in the atmosphere in our geographical region. “It is possible that after a period of drought we will have periods of heavy rainfall. This is not entirely indifferent to the average person, because droughts may, for example, cause losses in agriculture, and intense rainfall may cause, for example, the washing out of the soil, i.e. further losses, but also sudden water rises and flash floods,” he noted. He added that this is a symptom of increasingly higher temperatures, which results in greater dynamics of the climate system.
“It is often said that we can adapt to climate change. But please remember that we are talking about the whole world. The record-breaking warm February is a symptom of an increase in temperature all over the globe. The forecasts are that where there is a lot of water, it may there may be even more, and in places where there is drought, there may be even less water,” he said. “I wouldn’t be happy about these changes,” the scientist concluded. (PAP)