Soybean replanting concerns in major growing regions of Brazil

Weather trends have been mixed in Brazil this planting season with copious amounts of rainfall in the South but some of the main soybean growing states, like Mato Grosso, have been hot and dry. The week ending Nov. 4, 2023, was the hottest and fourth-driest start to November in 30-plus years for Mato Grosso, according to data from WeatherTrends360. Meanwhile, areas to the south continued to get inundated and this was the wettest start to November in 30-plus years for southern Brazil with temperatures slightly cooler than normal, including in Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná. 

The temperature and precipitation trend split continues into the first full week of November 2023, week-ending Nov. 11. For Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, this will be the third-hottest first full week of November in 30-plus years, according to forecasts from WeatherTrends360. This will be the fourth-driest first full week of November in 30-plus years for Mato Grosso. Meanwhile, wetter than normal weather will continue for southern Brazil.

Conditions have steadily improved in Argentina in recent weeks with rain returning after drought gripped growing regions earlier this year. More rainfall is expected going into the first full week of November 2023.

The hot and dry weather across critical growing regions of Brazil will force some areas to replant soybeans, especially for those that planted early. The delay in the soybean crop could jeopardize the safrinha crop as the ideal planting window is more likely to be missed for the second corn crop if soybean replanting occurs. 

The weather pattern this growing season has been significantly different from last year due, in large part, to El Niño conditions that are currently present. El Niño tends to bring wetter weather to southern portions of Brazil and drier weather farther north.