Heat threatens to reduce soil moisture in central Brazil

The final week of February 2024, week-ending March 2nd, was one of the hottest and driest in 30-plus years for Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, according to data from WeatherTrends360. The heaviest precipitation was reserved to western portion of the states. Hot conditions will have led to higher rates of evapotranspiration. Unfortunately, these states are already running a deficit for soil moisture and are very much in need of rain, especially Mato Grosso do Sul. The drier conditions have, however, offered ample opportunity to get the second corn crop in the ground. Getting the crop in the ground earlier than normal will help to diminish risks as the dry season sets in in the next couple of months.

Meanwhile, Argentina and southern Brazil saw greater precipitation and cooler temperatures. The wetter weather may have slowed the soybean harvest. 

The first full week of March 2024, week-ending March 9th, will continue the theme of hotter weather for Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul but showers should be more widespread than last week. This will be the 1st or 2nd hottest first week of March in 30-plus years for these Brazilian states, according to forecasts from WeatherTrends360. The precipitation is needed to replenish soil moisture ahead of the upcoming dry season and will have implications for the second corn crop. 

Drier conditions will be possible in portions of the main soybean-growing region of Argentina, especially near Buenos Aires. 

El Niño, which has been largely responsible for the drier growing season in central and northern Brazil and a wetter growing season in southern Brazil, will rapidly wane over the next several months. La Niña will emerge later this year which will bring the threat for drier weather and drought to southern Brazil and Argentina while central Brazil will be wetter. However, the shift in the weather pattern will likely hold off until after this growing season.