Showers return to central Brazil

The second full week of Nov. 2023 continued the trend of hot and dry weather for the core of the main soybean-growing regions of Brazil. According to data from WeatherTrends360, this was the hottest and driest second full week of November in 30-plus years for Mato Grosso.

Meanwhile, rainfall was mainly confined to southern Brazil. In fact, this was the wettest second week of November in 30-plus years for Rio Grande do Sul. The hot and dry weather in Brazil’s Center-West region has raised concerns over the soybean crop and subsequent safrinha crop.

The third full week of November 2023, week-ending Nov. 25th, will bring the hope of some showers to Central Brazil, however, some areas may still miss out on appreciable rainfall. The chance of precipitation should be accompanied by relatively cooler weather which should lessen stress on crops.

In southern Brazil, temperatures will trend below normal with Rio Grande do Sul trending the 3rd-coldest in 30-plus years for the third full week of November, according to forecasts from WeatherTrends360.

Shower will need to continue in Central-West Brazil for any appreciable, long-term improvement in soil moisture conditions. The showery activity may only be a temporary perturbation in the weather pattern rather than a full-on switch to the monsoon season.

El Niño, which favors wetter than normal weather in southern Brazil but drier than normal weather farther north, is expected to continue through the Southern Hemisphere winter.