Swine epidemic in China casts long shadow on world pork market

China, the world’s largest producer and consumer of pork, recovered from an epidemic of African swine fever among its pig herds by late 2021, three years after its first reported outbreak of the disease. Yet the domestic pork market remains volatile, “which may create additional uncertainty among pork exporters,” said three USDA economists in a new report. “[T]he spread of ASF to China may have lasting impacts on the global pork market despite China’s rapid recovery.”

Pork output plunged an average of 18% below normal levels for the 30 months of epidemic. Consumer pork prices doubled for 14 months, ending in January 2021 and did not return to pre-epidemic levels until September 2021. While record amounts of pork were imported, they replaced only one-fifth of the lost production. The epidemic engendered consolidation of hog farming into large-scale operations.

The cost of constructing the new, large hog farms plus the expense of stricter biosecurity practices has meant higher production costs for China. “To the extent that rising pork prices in China reflected rising production costs, lower prices for imported pork may sustain the demand for imported pork despite the expansion of pork production capacity in China,” said the report. China was the world’s largest pork importer in 2022, for the fourth year in a row, although its share of the world market was less than one-third of its peak during the epidemic.

The report, “How China’s African swine fever outbreaks affected global pork markets,” is available here.