Mexico chases China for No. 1 export market

Mexico will buy a record $28.4 billion worth of U.S. food and agricultural exports this fiscal year, only $300 million less than China, the first-place customer, forecast the Agriculture Department on Wednesday. China is now buying more corn and soybeans from Brazil and less from the United States.

“Exports to Mexico are forecast at a record $28.4 billion, a $500 million increase over the November estimate,” said the USDA’s quarterly agricultural trade outlook. “Strong demand for corn, pork, beef, and sweeteners are the primary drivers behind the higher forecast.”

The USDA reduced its estimate of sales to China by $800 million from its previous forecast, “largely due to strong competition on corn and soybeans from South America.” Sales to China of U.S. soybeans were down 29 percent and sales of corn were down 67 percent in the first quarter of this fiscal year, compared to the same period in fiscal 2023. “In contrast, China’s imports of both commodities from Brazil surged during the same period,” the USDA said. In fiscal 2023, China purchased $33.7 billion and Mexico $28.2 billion worth of U.S. food and ag exports.

As it did in November, the USDA said the ag trade deficit would be a record $30.5 billion this fiscal year. It raised its forecasts of ag exports and imports by $1 billion from November, to $170.5 billion in exports and $201 billion in imports.

The Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade is available here.