February WASDE: U.S. supplies higher than traders expected

Today, USDA released the February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. USDA raised ending stock estimates for U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat more than traders expected.

2023/2024 U.S. Ending Stocks

The WASDE report pegged the U.S. 2023/2024 corn ending stocks at 2.172 billion bushels. The trade’s expectation was for 2.148 billion bushels. USDA’s January estimate was at 2.162 billion bushels.

For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were pegged at 315 million bushels, vs. the trade’s expectation of 284 million and last month’s estimate of 280 million bushels.

USDA pegged the U.S. wheat ending stocks at 658 million bushels, vs. the trade’s expectation and January’s estimate of 648 million bushels.

2023/2024 World Ending Stocks

USDA pegged the world’s corn ending stocks at 322.1 million metric tons (mmt), vs. the trade’s expectation of 323.1 mmt. Last month, USDA’s estimate was 325.2 mmt.

For soybeans, the world ending stocks are estimated at 116 mmt, vs. the trade’s expectation of 112.5 mmt. USDA’s January estimate was 114.6 mmt.

For wheat, USDA pegged world ending stocks at 259.4 mmt, vs. the trade’s expectation of 261.1 mmt. Last month’s estimate was 260 mmt.

2023/2024 Argentina and Brazil crop production

For corn, Argentina’s production is pegged at 55 mmt, vs. the trade’s expectation of 55.6 mmt and last month’s estimate of 55 mmt. Brazil’s corn production is estimated at 124 mmt, vs. the trade’s expectation of 123.6 mmt and last month’s estimate of 127 mmt.

For soybeans, Argentina is estimated to produce 50 mmt, vs. the trade’s expectation of 50.9 mmt and January’s estimate of 50 mmt. Brazil’s soybean production is pegged at 156 mmt, vs. the trade’s expectation of 152.5 mmt and last month’s estimate of 157 mmt.