Last week, grain prices on world stock exchanges mostly ended with price increases. During the week, corn on Matif gained the most – 2.2%.
Corn on Matif the most expensive in over 3 months.
Last week, most grain contracts on global stock exchanges continued the correction that began in the middle of the third decade of March. This pattern was broken by corn on the Paris Stock Exchange, which on Friday reached its highest price since January 5 this year. The USDA report published on Thursday afternoon did not bring much new information compared to the previous publication.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has published the latest monthly report on, among others, the global grain balance. The global wheat harvest in the 2023/24 season is expected to amount to 787.36 million tons – a decrease of 1.97 million tons compared to the record 2022/23 season and an increase of 0.66 million tons compared to the forecast from last month. Final stocks for the current season are forecast at 258.27 million tonnes – 12.73 million tonnes lower than estimated at the end of the previous season – these will be the lowest stocks in several years.
Among the world’s most important producers and exporters of wheat, a decline in harvest in the current season (compared to the previous season) is expected in Russia – by 0.5 million tons to 91.5 million tons, in Australia – by 14.55 million tons to 26.00 million t, in Canada – by 2.38 million t to 31.95 million t, in Kazakhstan – by 4.29 million t to 12.11 million t. and in the European Union – by 0.14 million t to 134.15 million t. .
An increase in wheat production is forecast in Argentina – by 3.35 million tons to 15.9 million tons, in the USA – by 4.42 million tons to 49.31 million tons, in Ukraine – by 1.9 million tons to 23, 4 million tons. From other countries – large producers (but not exporters) – in India, the harvest is expected to amount to 110.55 million tons (an increase by 6.55 million tons) and in China 136.59 million tons (a decrease by 1.13 million tons ).
According to the April USDA report, the world corn harvest in the current season will amount to 1,227.86 million tons – an increase of 70.12 million tons compared to the previous season. Stocks at the end of the current season are expected to increase by 16.09 million tons to 318.28 million tons. In the USA, production is forecast to increase by 42.96 million tons to 389.69 million tons, in Brazil the decline is expected to amount to 13.0 million tons to 124.0 million tons, in Ukraine it is expected to increase by 2.5 million tons to 29.5 million tons, in the European Union the harvest is expected to be higher by 8.71 million tons and will amount to 61.0 million tons, and in Argentina it will be higher by 19 million tons, 0 million t will increase to 55.0 million t.
Wheat in the contract for delivery in May rose by 1.2% on Friday on Matif. and cost EUR 203.50/t (PLN 868/t), and on a y/y basis the prices dropped by 19.0%. Over the last week, the price of wheat increased by 0.2%.
The price of corn on the Paris Stock Exchange in the June contract increased by 1.3 percent on Friday. and amounted to EUR 194.50/t (PLN 830/t), and over the last year it decreased by 21.5%. During the week, the quotations increased by 2.2%.
During the week, only wheat on CBOT became cheaper
Wheat on CBoT in the May contract increased by 0.8% on Friday. and cost USD 204.29/t. On a y/y basis, the prices fell by 16.6%. Over the last week, the price has decreased by 2.0%. The price of corn in the contract for delivery in May on the Chicago Stock Exchange increased by 1.6%. and amounted to USD 171.45/t, and over the last year it decreased by 33.2%. Over the last week, quotations increased by 0.3%.
Matif wheat, May contract – the price increased by 1.24% on Friday. (EUR 203.50/t – PLN 868/t).
Chart 1.
Quotations of May wheat futures contracts expressed in PLN are presented in the chart below:
Chart 2
In the continuation chart below of wheat contracts listed on the Paris Stock Exchange, the long-term downtrend dominates, the medium-term trend is downward, and the short-term trend is downward.
Chart 3
CBOT wheat, May contract – the price increased by 0.77% on Friday. ($204.29/t-PLN 817/t).
Chart 4
The Chicago stock exchange is currently dominated by a long-term downward trend, a medium-term downward trend, and a short-term downward trend.
Chart 5
Matif corn, June contract – the price increased by 1.30% on Friday. (EUR 194.50/t – PLN 830/t).
Chart 6
Quotations of June corn futures contracts expressed in PLN are presented in the chart below:
Chart 7
In the continuation chart below of corn contracts listed on the Paris Stock Exchange, the long-term downtrend dominates, the medium-term trend is downward and the short-term trend is up.
Chart 8
CBOT corn, May contract – the price increased by 1.57% on Friday. ($171.45/t- PLN 686/t).
Chart 9
The continuation chart of corn contracts listed on CBOT is dominated by a long-term downward trend, a medium-term downward trend, and a short-term upward trend.
Chart 10
