– At the European Union level, in the context of the new free trade agreement with Ukraine, which is to be in force from June this year to June next year, we will not achieve consensus, says Monika Piątkowska, president of the Grain and Feed Chamber. He points out that there are different interests of member states in the EU, which are difficult to reconcile. Currently, there is an embargo on the import of four basic cereals to Poland. – Looking at the emotions of Polish farmers and the situation in the Polish countryside, I cannot imagine grain from Ukraine flowing into Poland today, so this embargo should be maintained at least at the national level – emphasizes the expert.
– There are different interests of member states in the European Union. We have countries such as Spain, Italy, Portugal, which are natural, traditional importers of grain and they want some of the grain, including Ukrainian grain, to find their way there, there are frontline countries, including Poland, which is a traditional grain producer and does not need grain from Ukraine – emphasizes the president of the Grain and Feed Chamber, Monika Piątkowska, in an interview with the Newseria Biznes agency. – Of course, it should be remembered that trade policy is the exclusive competence of the European Union, so such a decision should be made at the EU level, but everything indicates that due to the divergence of interests of the Member States, there is no chance for this.
According to the National Institute of Statistics in Lisbon, in 2023 Portugal recorded record imports of Ukrainian grain. According to official announcements, its value last year was over EUR 360 million. In turn, in 2023, Spain will be among the largest importers of grain from our eastern neighbor. In this situation, it is difficult to achieve consensus at the level of the entire European Union in the context of the new free trade agreement with Ukraine. New regulations in this area are to be in force for one year from June 2024.
– This agreement, we can already see today, will not fully satisfy Poles and Polish farmers, therefore an agreement should be reached with the acceptance of the European Union at the level of Poland and Ukraine, and this agreement should absolutely resolve, above all, the inflow of agri-food products, including grain, to Poland – emphasizes the expert. – Currently, the Polish government is still in talks with the Ukrainian side, and the result of these talks may be the development of limits on the import of specified products into our country.
The limits should not distort the market in Poland
The President of the Polish Feed and Grain Chamber believes that if limits are to be set, they must be set at a level that will not disturb the market in Poland. It is also about the Polish administration having a decisive say in the entire process and at each stage.
– It is necessary to divide competences between the Ukrainian and Polish administration in such a way that the Polish government has full control over this process and can at any time turn off the tap on the inflow of this product from Ukraine, even if it is within a certain limit, if we notice that this inflow of goods may destabilize the market – says Monika Piątkowska.
The Feed and Grain Chamber believes that the moment of reaction is crucial, so that it is not a “follow-up reaction” tool that is used when a market disruption occurs. What is important here is the ability to take pre-emptive action to prevent possible problems. Monika Piątkowska claims that the market destabilization, which appeared many months ago, is a process that is still ongoing and has a negative impact on industries.
– We can influence the reduction of the amount of agri-food products flowing from Ukraine to Poland. And here, at the level of bilateral talks, at the level of an agreement, which, I hope, will be worked out in the coming days, we can have this influence and thus, to some extent, reassure farmers and systematically restore stability in the Polish countryside – he says.
He adds that we are dealing with a process and developing appropriate solutions will not happen overnight. The minimum plan should therefore be to quickly develop an agreement and present its content to farmers. Finding satisfactory solutions at EU level may be difficult due to the different interests of its members. For this reason, the Chamber is of the opinion that some competences in the discussed area should be delegated to the Member States.
– Just as Poland should immediately, as he announced, Prime Minister Tusk prepared the ground for working out trade conditions based on a bilateral Poland-Ukraine agreement, other European countries should and de facto have such an opportunity. After all, even Romania has already worked out the limits and it would be good to draw conclusions from this agreement – says Monika Piątkowska.
Specificity of the Ukrainian market
The President of the Feed and Grain Chamber also draws attention to issues related to the need to help Ukraine, while not forgetting the specificity of the agricultural market of our eastern neighbor.
– We must always remember that the war that is taking place beyond our eastern border is taking place in a country that is a significant agricultural producer, that has huge acreage, that has great soil, that has international capital, that has huge agroholdings. And it is truly a production tycoon, it is a country that can significantly influence the agri-food situation, the competitiveness of agriculture in Poland and other European countries, and this specificity should be understood and the possibility of introducing protective mechanisms should be made in those European markets where this is necessary, the expert emphasizes.
According to forecasts of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food in Kiev, grain production in Ukraine in 2023 amounted to approximately 60 million tons. Just over 50 percent. of this volume is corn. For comparison, grain production in Poland in recent years is just over 35 million tons.
The war that has been ongoing since February 24, 2022, resulting from a full-scale attack by the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine, has significantly reduced the grain production capacity of our eastern neighbor. Suffice it to say that in 2021, according to the Ukrainian equivalent of our Central Statistical Office, grain production exceeded 85 million tons.
According to FAO – the world food and agriculture organization operating at the UN (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) – global cereal production is growing at a rate of approximately 1%. and in the 2023/2024 season it should exceed 2.8 billion tonnes, according to forecasts published at the beginning of March 2024. The change is mainly due to higher forecasts for corn recorded, among others, in both Americas and China. At the same time, wheat production is forecast to decline by just over 2%. FAO estimates that in the 2024/2025 season, world wheat production will amount to less than 790 million tonnes.
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