Showers returning to Central Brazil

Precipitation in the third week of January 2024, week-ending Jan. 20th, was below normal across Central Brazil while southern Brazil was wetter. This was the hottest and one of the driest third weeks of January in 30-plus years for both Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, according to data from WeatherTrends360. Meanwhile, this was the 3rd-wettest third week of January in 30-plus years for Rio Grande do Sul. 

Hot and dry conditions exacerbated the drought in Central Brazil. The continuation of a hot and dry theme in the main soybean-growing regions of Brazil has prompted several agencies to decrease soybean crop outlooks, causing upside pressure on prices. 

As we move into the fourth week of January, week-ending Jan. 27th, precipitation trends are expected to reverse with drier than normal weather in Rio Grande do Sul but wetter weather in Central Brazil. This is forecast by WeatherTrends360 to be the 6th-wettest fourth week of January in 30-plus years for Mato Grosso. While the rainfall is very much needed across Central Brazil, the timing is problematic as soybean harvest and second corn crop (safrinha) planting takes place. 

The wetter weather may slow down progress and push safrinha planting later into the season, which increases the risk for the crop maturing during the typical dry season in Brazil. Several areas were already expected to see later planting of the safrinha crop due to earlier issues with the soybean crop and replanting that took place. 

Wetter trends may persist into February 2024 in Central Brazil, helping to build soil moisture but slowing down safrinha planting.