Rains have come across the Corn Belt and while it is late in the season, the rains are still likely to help most corn and soybean crops.
The higher yields would expect to come along with lower prices, but that may not be such a bad thing as a lower global price is more attractive to other countries.
“It also enhanced the beans export value in the global market, as a cheaper bid attracted 8-10 flash sales in the past fortnight,” wrote William Moore, market analyst with Price Futures Group, in his AgMaster column.
With the impacts of a drought already in 2023, combined with a severe drought that impacted the Argentine crop, global supplies are expected to shrink, which would make current prices “woefully too cheap,” indicating a rise in price may be coming.
Corn, meanwhile, has been “pummeled” twice this summer by the USDA and weather markets, Moore said. An unexpected increase in acres in late June and a wet, cool beginning to August have drastically changed the outlook for many farmers. However, with much of this bearish news dialed in a neutral Supply and Demand report on Aug. 11, the market reacted higher but any profits were quickly taken and it was an overall down day for the crop.
“We would be surprised to see the market go much down from here, even with a bearish USDA (report),” he said.
That supply and demand report showed a slight decline in corn yield estimates, down 2.4 bushel per acre to 155.1. Ending stocks were also lower in the August report, at 2.202 billion bushels.
Soybeans came in at an estimated 50.9 bushels per acre, down nearly 1 bushel from last month’s estimate, while ending stocks were at 245,000, down 55,000 from the July report.
“Most markets jumped higher after the report but retreated as traders lost interest in the report data,” Moore said. “They took their profits and left for the weekend.”
