The same factors that have been impacting grain prices this summer continue to do so. Weather and war lead the way in news during another volatile week of trading. However, now some headlines will be replaced with projections of yields both from the USDA and private tours which are rolling out across the Midwest.
Traders will be watching for reaction to the Aug. 11 USDA Supply and Demand report and WASDE data to gain insight into the impact weather has had so far this season and trends in export demand.
In addition to the USDA reports, a number of private crop tours are already in full swing assessing yields, with some of that information expected to be in the flow of news this week.
For corn in general, prices have hit recent lows with a lot of bad news of late, says Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures. That news includes good weather and poor demand.
Some forecasts for 177 bu./acre corn also indicate a larger crop than was expected when drought was the main headline news. The question is what other bad news can pop up that would drive corn lower, Sloup says.
The only thing certain about weather this summer is uncertainty.
“Rains are forecasted in the Central U.S. Weather models disagree on intensity and location. … Benefits favor South Dakota, Minnesota and Tennessee,” writes Dan Flynn in the Corn & Ethanol Report for Price Futures Group.
Long-range guidance keeps a ridge/trough pattern intact. If verified, that means heat stays absent from the Central Plains and Midwest into the latter part of the month, while additional rain favors the Great Lakes and Northwest Midwest, Flynn says.
Tension from war in Ukraine is on the rise with exporters struggling with securing freight insurance as the war spreads to Black Sea, Flynn says. Continued reports of offensives by both Ukraine and Russian forces extend the uncertainty of grain transportation there.
On the ethanol front, trade has been quiet. The impacts of the EIA Energy Stocks and WASDE data this week will be closely watched by those trading corn for ethanol, Flynn says.