The discount on the wholesale market will not translate into discounts at gas stations for now; At the turn of February and March, fuel prices will continue to increase, although the scale of the increase should be small – e-petrol.pl analysts predict. However, they drew attention to a disturbing trend when it comes to oil, including: in the context of the Middle East.
The portal’s experts pointed out that fuel prices have been rising continuously for over a month, and drivers are afraid that prices will return to PLN 7 per liter of diesel.
Fortunately, the risk that such a worst-case scenario will come true in the coming days is decreasing, because oil products are becoming cheaper around the world and the Polish zloty is strengthening in relation to the US dollar – it was emphasized.
As noted, domestic fuel producers began to reduce prices in response to the situation on the core markets in Europe, and wholesale prices in Poland saw their first declines in a long time.
For now, there are no visible reductions in fuel prices in wholesale and gas stations
E-petrol.pl analysts pointed out that despite the reduction in wholesale prices at gas stations, this is not yet visible.
Last week, we observed a further increase in prices on the retail fuel market. The price of diesel oil increased the most, by as much as 9 groszy, and the average price was PLN 6.72/l. The last time refueling diesel was so expensive was in mid-November last year. 95-octane petrol, which has increased in price by 5 cents over the week, currently costs PLN 6.47/l. Drivers of cars with LPG installations also pay more for refueling. Autogas has gone up in price by PLN 2 and its current average price is PLN 2.94/l – attention has been drawn.
Experts added that for now, drivers can only expect a slowdown in price increases at stations.
Our forecast of retail fuel prices at the turn of February and March assumes further increases, but their scale should be small. The estimated price ranges for individual fuel types are as follows: PLN 6.44-6.56/l for 95-octane gasoline, PLN 6.69-6.81/l for diesel, PLN 2.91-2.98/l for autogas. – analysts predict.
Not very optimistic price forecasts on the fuel market
Regarding oil prices, it was pointed out that in recent days the American Institute of International Finance (IIF) suggested that oil prices may increase. Trade and logistic disruptions related to the armed conflict in the Middle East, especially in the Red Sea, would be responsible for such a scenario.
The agenda suggests that the transit disruptions may result in an increase in oil prices by up to 40 percent, which will contribute to a slowdown in global GDP in 2024. So far, the forecasts seem to be confirmed, because the price of the raw material has already increased by nearly $8 since the beginning of the year. – emphasized.
E-petrol.pl also recalls the last statement of Aramco director Ziad Al-Murshed, who estimated that due to the natural aging process of exploitable deposits, as much as 6 million barrels a day of global crude oil production is lost every year.
In the absence of appropriate investments, the global economy may face a raw material deficit, which will be obviously reflected in prices, it was noted.
– For now, the market shows that less optimistic scenarios are coming true – last week at least several ships were damaged as a result of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, and it is difficult to talk about any stabilization of the situation in the region – therefore, many tankers choose longer routes to Europe, which causes that the transported oil becomes more expensive for recipients. The coming days do not promise any positive change in this respect – it was concluded.
