El Niño weather patterns are quickly fading and expected to vanish by late spring or early summer.
Meteorologists report that the cyclical warming of water in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean near the equator is waning. Following its peak in late November and December, ocean temperatures in this region have dropped below the 1.5-degree Celsius anomaly typically associated with a robust El Niño in recent weeks.
This is the aquarium view of the Pacific basin adjusting out of El Nino and into La Nina pic.twitter.com/Y7LVTf8rsb
— Mike Ventrice (@MJVentrice) March 14, 2024
El Niño and La Niña occur from interactions between the ocean’s surface and the atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. The fluctuations in ocean temperatures have the potential to influence weather patterns across vast distances, including regions near the U.S. Although not the sole determinant of weather patterns, transitioning to La Niña may bring about several noticeable impacts.
Here’s what you might see:
- Hotter summers in the central and eastern U.S.
- A more active Atlantic hurricane season
- Warmer, drier winters in the South
- Colder winters in the Norther Plains
- Wetter winter in the Pacific Northwest
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, there’s an over 60 percent chance that La Niña will develop by summer. That chance increases to 80 percent by late summer and into fall.
A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (62% chance). An #ElNino Advisory and #LaNina Watch remain in effect. https://t.co/5zlzaZ0D9Z pic.twitter.com/Igu9bsBAFz
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) March 14, 2024
Why does this matter for farmers?
Three consecutive previous La Niña events weighed heavily on farms and ranches beginning in 2020 as a wet 2019 turned into a very dry 2020. During La Niña’s recent three-year stay, the U.S. experienced 14 hurricanes and tropical storms whose damages totaled $252 billion. Those widespread droughts then flipped to wetter weather in the Plains and South this winter.
While La Niña is historically connected to more damaging and expensive weather patterns, it is not well-favored by American agriculture. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that, generally, per-acre corn and winter wheat yields tend to be increased after growing periods marked by El Niño conditions, and reduced after growing periods marked by La Niña conditions.
While very year is different, and so is every La Niña, the 2020-2022 drought and dry spells, as well as historical trends for drier conditions across the Western Corn Belt, could spell a difficult year for farmers and ranchers.