Last week, most of the grain prices on world stock exchanges ended with a decline in prices. Only wheat prices on CBOT increased.
Last week, most grain contracts on global stock exchanges continued the correction that began in the middle of the third decade of March. Price increases continued only in American wheat, which was the last to start an upward wave (charts below) and after Friday’s session is the most expensive in over a month.
Lower wheat harvest in the EU next season
At the end of March, the European Commission presented the first forecasts for cereal production in the EU in the coming season. The wheat harvest is expected to be lower by 4.9 million tonnes compared to the current season and will amount to 121.7 million tonnes. Harvest declines are forecast among the largest EU producers – in France by 2.4 million tonnes to 32.6 million tonnes, in Germany by 2 million tonnes. .4 million t to 19.0 million t and in Poland by 0.1 million t to 13.1 million t.
Over 10 percent increase in corn production forecasts in the EU
In the case of corn, the EC forecasts an increase in the harvest by 6.7 million tons to 69.3 million tons. Among the largest EU producers, the harvest will increase in France – by 0.6 million tons to 13.6 million and in Romania – by 1.5 million tons to 12.4 million tons, while in Poland they will decrease by 0.5 million tons to 8.6 million tons.
Wheat in the contract for delivery in May increased by 1.5% on Friday on Matif. and cost EUR 203.00/t (PLN 871/t), and y/y the prices dropped by 22.4%. Over the last week, the price of wheat decreased by 0.2%.
The price of corn on the Paris Stock Exchange in the June contract fell by 0.1 percent on Friday. and amounted to EUR 190.25/t (PLN 816/t), and over the last year it decreased by 26.5%. During the week, the prices fell by 1.6%.
Wheat on CBoT in the May contract increased by 2.0% on Friday. and cost USD 208.43/t. On a y/y basis, quotations decreased by 16.8%. Over the last week, the price has increased by 1.2%. The price of corn in the contract for delivery in May on the stock exchange decreased by 0.2%. and amounted to USD 171.35/t, and over the last year it decreased by 33.5%. Over the last week, prices have fallen by 1.8%.
Matif wheat, May contract – the price increased by 1.50% on Friday. (EUR 203.00/t – PLN 871/t).
Chart 1.
Quotations of May wheat futures contracts expressed in PLN are presented in the chart below:
Chart 2
In the continuation chart below of wheat contracts listed on the Paris Stock Exchange, the long-term downtrend dominates, the medium-term trend is downward, and the short-term trend is downward.
Chart 3
CBOT wheat, May contract – the price increased by 1.98% on Friday. ($208.43/t-PLN 825/t).
Chart 4
The Chicago stock exchange is currently dominated by a long-term downward trend, a medium-term downward trend, and a short-term downward trend.
Chart 5
Matif corn, June contract – the price fell by 0.13% on Friday. (EUR 190.25/t – PLN 816/t).
Chart 6
Quotations of June corn futures contracts expressed in PLN are presented in the chart below:
Chart 7
In the continuation chart below of corn contracts listed on the Paris Stock Exchange, the long-term downtrend dominates, the medium-term trend is downward and the short-term trend is up.
Chart 8
CBOT corn, May contract – the price fell by 0.23% on Friday. ($171.35/t-PLN 676/t).
Chart 9
The continuation chart of corn contracts listed on CBOT is dominated by a long-term downward trend, a medium-term downward trend, and a short-term upward trend.
Chart 10
– .
